Week 4: Some Statistics Regarding Sports Betting

Here we go, Week 3 of my project is underway, and I cannot be more excited. This week was another informative and interesting one, as I learned more about statistical use in sports betting. I was able to take everything that I have learned about thus far, and provide this project with a more mathematical state-of-mind. In doing so, I accomplished my goal for the week: learning about how math and, more specifically, statistics, works in sports betting and gambling in general.

This week was another extremely interesting and educational one! It was very insightful for me to relate the things I have learned about sports betting to what I already know about math and statistics. Furthermore, I was even able to learn more about stats than I already knew, particularly regarding how they are used in gambling. As previously mentioned in Week 2, there are countless terms associated with sports betting and gambling in general. One concept that is particularly crucial for a bettor to understand is “odds”, which are displayed differently based on the sport and location you’re betting on. To review, there are three ways in which odds can be displayed. If you’re chance of winning is 33.33% (for example): American Odds are +200, Fractional Odds are ½, and Decimal Odds are 3.00. Either way, every $1 that is wagered will yield a profit of $2, if successful. For American Odds, a negative number tells you how much you need to risk to profit $100 (i.e., -140 means if you successfully wager $140, you will receive $240 in return). Fractional Odds always display the payout/wager as a fraction (i.e., a team having odds of 1/5 will see a payout of just $1 for every $5 bet). Lastly, Decimal Odds provide an exact number that is payed out per $1 bet (i.e., 2.5 means a $1 bet will yield $2.⁵⁰).

Bookmakers use Las Vegas Odds as a benchmark, meaning there’s less variation between gambling venues across the world. Offering odds that are much better for players than Vegas Odds will attract more gamblers, but can also be disastrous if there’s a big upset (Online Gambling, 2020). This also means that Vegas Odds are built to generate a profit for “the house”; this is why they say “the house always wins”. Most Bookmakers use their own teams to calculate odds based on various criteria, from the location of the match and the weather, to player absences or injury risks. Odds change quickly, as Bookmakers update them while events are in-play. They will also use Vegas Odds as a benchmark for their own calculations, which can influence the variety of odds they offer gamblers.

Another important number that I came across is that a bettor would need to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even, because of Bookmakers’ commission! The commission is the percentage that bookmakers take out of betting odds in order to take their cut of the action, regardless of the outcome of an event. This ensure a profit for the Bookmakers because every time you bet, you are sacrificing a portion of your winnings (or losings) to them (Sports Betting Day, 2020). One example of this, which I have realized in my own experiences, occurs when prop betting in hockey. If you bet on the winner of the opening face-off in hockey, you would think this would be a 50/50 bet – the odds of either side winning are 50%, like flipping a coin and landing on heads or tails. Even though this is the case, the odds (and more importantly, the payout) do not reflect this outcome! Because Bookmakers need to make commission and profit, the American Odds of one team winning the opening face-off over the other are more like 1.85, or -185, for both sides. This means that both teams are the favourite, ensuring that a bettor would never make more money than they have wagered! This is important to teach adolescents because even if they think they may be winning, the “house” is still coming out on top!

For my next Genius Hour, I will be teaching consumers some ways in which companies take advantage of them.

References

Bookmaker Commission (2020, October). Sports Betting Day. http://www.sportsbettingday.com/sports-betting-strategies/bookmaker-commission/

How Bookmakers Make Money (2020, September). Gambling Sites. https://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-betting/beginners-guide/how-bookmakers-make-money/

How Do Odds Work? (2020, October). Online Gambling. https://www.onlinegambling.com/sports/betting-odds-guide/

Week 3: How Sports Betting Works (Some Guidelines)

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Welcome to Week 2 of my Genius Hour Project on how math and stats are implicit when betting on sports. I hope that you all had as terrific of a week as me, starting off with the fact that my favourite hockey team won the Stanley Cup! My main goal for this week was to take the main terms and concepts that I learned about last week, and use them as keywords to research how sports betting actually works. I decided to begin by looking up definitions of “sports betting” by using keywords in Google such as “sports”, and “betting”, “gambling”, and more. I also though it would be a good idea for me to search for key terms and concepts that will likely arise frequently throughout this project. This could not come at a better time, since my all-time favourite sports team (Tampa Bay Lightning) are currently in the Stanley Cup Finals, and I am going to place bets on them!

I was able to learn so much again this week! I also knew that having a “math brain” was beneficial in terms of financial gains – both personally and professionally – but it was interesting to see how this comes true in sports betting. Mainly, when combining two of my favourite things (sports and math), I am able to better my chances of making money through gambling and watching sports simultaneously! In general, there are 3 components of a sports bet: selection, stake (risk), and odds (Cannane & Taylor, 2019). Another important thing that I learned about this topic is that some major betting sites use backdoor algorithms, restrictions, and alleged delaying tactics to skew the competition and drive up profits! Things like these are crucial to note for anyone before they partake in such sports betting activities. One man named Daniel Laidlaw even claimed that Bet365 started putting a limit on how much he was able to bet. Shortly after, he was banned altogether from using the website, and his account had been deactivated. After investigating into the matter a bit further, Laidlaw found out that the company uses a secret algorithm that classified him as a successful bettor and therefore a risk to the company’s profits (Maguire, 2019). This company, in brief, uses MATH to investigate who may be costing them money. For instance, Laidlaw was rated at 0.0025, making him a huge threat to its bottom-line. This just goes to show consumers that, although they may think they are winning and coming out on top, the house (almost) always wins! If someone truly were gaining money from the site, they would likely appear as a threat to the company, and their account would be banned. In other words, if you win enough, the algorithm kicks in and stops you from being able to bet anymore.

Daniel Laidlaw, ABC News Australia (2019)

I did, however, have some trouble again this week. One issue that I had pondered this week was what influence betting under the influence may have on bettors. As a secondary school teacher, we obviously encourage the students to avoid drugs and alcohol at all costs. In reality, however, many bettors are in-fact under the influence of these substance when the are betting. Therefore, I wonder if teaching students about the negative consequences of one (sports betting or drugs and alcohol) would also have help them realize the dangers of the other. An example of this in my own classroom could be me teaching my students about what I have been researching in my Genius Hour project, while simultaneously including some bits about how alcohol and drugs can play a role. On the other hand, as a physical education teacher, I could teach include in the substance use/abuse unit, some circumstances where being intoxication may be even more dangerous (i.e., gambling). It all ties in together and illustrates the importance of a holistic curriculum with multiple domains involved and cross-curricular pedagogy!

For next week’s research, I will be getting more in-depth with my topic by relating what I have already learned about sports betting with some mathematical and statistical facts and understandings. This will really help my project and assist me in moving forward with research on how statistics are used in sports betting.

References

Cannane, S. & Taylor, K. (2019, December). In this sports betting company, the winners are called “problem customers”. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486?nw=0

Common Sports Betting Mistakes (2020, September). Gambling Sites. https://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-betting/beginners-guide/common-mistakes/

Maguire, D. (2019). Daniel Laidlaw. ABC News Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/daniel-laidlaw-1/11768568?nw=0

Week 2: Definition of Sports Betting, Terms, and Concepts

 

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Hey everyone, just wanted to start this project off with my first research blog post! This week I wanted to introduce you to what sports betting is, as well as giving myself a better grasp of the topic. I decided to begin by looking up definitions of “sports betting” by using keywords in Google such as “sports”, and “betting”, “gambling”, and more. I also though it would be a good idea for me to search for key terms and concepts that will likely arise frequently throughout this project. This could not come at a better time, since my all-time favourite sports team (Tampa Bay Lightning) are currently in the Stanley Cup Finals, and I am going to place a bet on them to win!

Definition:

Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. (Wikipedia)

Thomas, M. (2018). Sports Betting is NOT Gambling. Zen Sports. https://blog.zensports.com/sports-betting-is-not-gambling-its-skill-based-63a8af49ea62

I learned a lot about my topic this week! It was very insightful gaining more knowledge on the background of sports betting and becoming more familiar with certain terms and concepts that I have see before, but never really knew what they meant. I read through so many terms, such as “Moneyline” (payout, based on odds), “Accumulator” (series of single bets that have been grouped together), “Handicaps” (advantage given to underdogs), and “Parlay” (moving money used on one bet to the next one).

I also learned that the “Bookmakers” (sports betting organizations) – who are the ones who determine the odds and payout (moneylines) for the games – make commission every time a bettor loses their bet (Nerds of Gambling, 2020). This is important because it shows how sports betting is a game and, in the end, the Bookkmakers and companies always win over the ones who are betting. This is also why an odds of -110 means that you need to risk $110 just to make $100 back (Monroy, 2013). You rarely make as much back as you risk, even if you win! Conversely, odds that are underdogs (denoted by a +), mean that is how much money you’ll win if you risk $100. Although the payout is higher, these wagers usually never win, and the consumer usually ends up losing all their money!

It is also important to note that there are three different formats for displaying odds; different bookmakers use different formats. American odds use the format that I discussed above. Decimal odds are expressed by a number that shows how much the payout will be per unit staked (i.e., 1.30 means you’ll make 130% of your money back if you win); fractional odds do the same using fractions (i.e., 3/1 means you’’ win 300% of your money back, 1/3 means you’ll only make 33% back, etc.). Again, this illustrates how math is at the heart and soul of gambling!

One last thing I wanted to discuss are some common bet types (Gambling Sites, 2020). Win and moneyline bets are the most straightforward – simply select who you think will win and the odds will determine your payout. Totals and over/under bets are also simple: bet on whether you think the total score will be over or under the bookmaker’s prediction. Points spread and handicap betting are where things get a little trickier. Here, the bookmaker predicts how many points the favoured team will win by, and adds this many points to the underdog’s final score. For example, if a favourite with a handicap of -6 wins a basketball game 105-100, they actually “lose” that game 100-99. The last major type of bet that someone can place is called a prop bet, which includes wagers on just about anything (ex. which team will score first). There are several other types of bets you can place, but I think that’s enough for the purpose of my Genius Hour. After all, I’m trying to provide you with some sense and educate you on the risks of gambling based on statistics, not teach you how to become a gambling addict!!

For our next Genius Hour, I will definitely need to continue to learn about some more key terms regarding sports and gambling. It will be nice to continue to freshen up on some of these concepts for next week. I also want to apply my new knowledge by betting a little bit myself and exploring some betting websites online.

I will use the newly gained understanding from this week to drive my project further. Having this basic and fundamental knowledge will be crucial from here on out, while doing the remainder of my research. It is vital that I keep the definitions and concepts that I learned this week in mind when completing the rest of my project. I cannot wait to see where this knowledge will take me, and research more about how sports betting works and how statistics has a critical role to play!

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References

Monroy, G. (2013, May). Sports Betting 101: Basic Concepts. Doc’s Sport Service. https://www.docsports.com/2013/sports-betting-101-basic-concepts-531.html

Nerds of Gambling (2020, August). Betting Terms: Understand the Basic Betting Concepts. https://www.nerdsofgambling.com/betting-terms-understand-basic-betting-concepts/

Sports Betting for Beginners (2020, September). https://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-betting/

Types of Bets Explained (2020, September). https://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-betting/beginners-guide/types-of-bets/